In the ever-evolving world of music, foresight matters as much as creativity. MIDiA Research’s newly released annual Global Music Forecasts report for 2025–2032 offers a meticulously handcrafted, data-driven vision of where the music industry is heading. Titled Recalibration, this year’s forecast captures a moment where growth dynamics are shifting, streaming markets are maturing, and new technologies are both challenging and reshaping the industry.
Unlike many forecasts that lean on broad strokes and averages, MIDiA’s approach is deeply detailed described by the team as “more Etsy than Amazon.” Thousands of data points across 39 markets are individually modeled, stress-tested, and cross-checked. This level of rigor underscores the importance of accuracy in a sector where business and investment strategies depend on reliable projections. As the report makes clear, forecasting isn’t just math; it’s also deeply human anchored in industry expertise and interpretation.
The big headline numbers
By 2032, global recorded music revenues are forecasted to reach a staggering $110.8 billion. This comprehensive figure, presented in retail terms, encompasses a wide range of revenue streams:
- Traditional sources like streaming, downloads, physical sales, performance, and sync licensing
- Non-DSP streaming from platforms like TikTok
- Expanded Rights, which include labels’ shares of live shows, merchandising, and brand partnerships
- Label licensing for audiovisual content like documentaries and biopics
- Production music
- Contributions from the long tail of independent artists and labels
This maximalist view provides a holistic sense of how diversified the modern music business has become. By contrast, a more conservative measure that excludes Expanded Rights and focuses only on label revenues projects a total of $51.2 billion by 2032. Together, these figures illustrate both the resilience of the industry and the complexity of its revenue ecosystem.
From boom to recalibration: recent growth patterns
While the global music industry saw a strong year in 2023, growth in 2024 slowed to 4.3%. MIDiA notes that this slowdown fits into a broader oscillating growth pattern that has defined much of the current decade. In this pattern, robust growth years tend to be followed by weaker ones, often driven by declines in physical formats and most importantly fluctuations in streaming growth.
The report highlights that streaming, as the primary revenue engine, now shows signs of maturation. As streaming growth becomes steadier rather than explosive, smaller revenue categories like physical sales or sync licensing start to play a decisive role in overall growth rates. Interestingly, physical formats still carry a kind of “kingmaker” power: small changes in physical sales can tilt an entire year’s performance.
This dynamic, MIDiA argues, underscores why 2025–2032 should be seen as a period of recalibration—where the industry must adjust to new realities and shifting drivers of growth.
Shifting global power: The rise of non-Western markets
One of the most striking insights in this year’s report is the shift in where growth is coming from. Close to four-fifths of new music subscribers in recent years emerged from non-Western markets. In 2024, China became the world’s fourth largest recorded music market, marking a major milestone that reflects broader global trends.
This transition isn’t entirely new: MIDiA’s 2024 report, titled Rise of the Global South, had already flagged it. But in 2025 and beyond, this trend is no longer peripheral it’s central. Western labels and rightsholders are increasingly acquiring catalogs and partnering with artists in the Global South to secure their stake in these fast-growing territories.
A key question raised by MIDiA: will large catalog investors, many of whom have traditionally focused on established Western artists and markets, follow suit? The answer could reshape the structure of music investment over the next decade.
New DSP dynamics and the balance of power
As digital service providers (DSPs) continue to evolve, their influence over the industry’s financial landscape is becoming more pronounced. One recent development is the emergence of “bundles” licensing discounts: in exchange for lower royalty rates, labels secured more “artist-centric” models from DSPs.
While this trade-off may have short-term benefits for labels and artists, MIDiA cautions that it sets a precedent: DSPs now have a model for reducing the total royalty pool. Over time, this could tip the power balance further toward platforms.
Ad-supported streaming: A mixed picture
Ad-supported streaming, which many hoped would be a high-growth area, faced headwinds in 2024 with revenues remaining flat. Part of this was actually positive: more music videos were monetized inside premium services like YouTube Premium, where ad revenue per user is higher.
However, another factor reflects the growing leverage of DSPs: advertisers increasingly favor podcasts over music for ad targeting, given the richer user data and clearer contexts podcasts provide. This shift puts additional pressure on music’s ad-supported business models.
The AI wave: disruption and opportunity
No forecast today would be complete without examining AI’s impact and MIDiA devotes significant attention to this rapidly evolving frontier. As rightsholders navigate legal battles over rights and compensation, a parallel universe of generative AI startups has emerged. Many of these startups are populating DSPs with AI-generated music at scale.
Some companies are seeking ethical collaborations with rightsholders. Others are following the now-familiar Silicon Valley approach of “do first, ask forgiveness later” a tactic that historically helped platforms like YouTube and TikTok grow quickly, even in the face of copyright concerns.
The result is an influx of AI music that could reshape discoverability, listener behavior, and even the economics of streaming platforms.
A complex, multi-speed market
Overall, MIDiA’s Recalibration report paints a picture of an industry entering a more nuanced and multi-speed era:
- Growth is still there, but it is uneven: strong in some territories and revenue categories, weaker or flat in others.
- Streaming, the industry’s cornerstone, is settling into a more mature phase. As a result, incremental shifts in smaller revenue sources whether physical, sync, or non-DSP streaming now have a larger impact.
- The geographic center of gravity is moving decisively toward the Global South, challenging traditional Western dominance.
- DSPs are becoming more powerful players, capable of negotiating royalty terms that could reshape the economics of streaming.
- Ad-supported models face challenges from podcasts and shifting advertiser preferences.
- AI-generated music introduces both risks (flooding catalogs, rights disputes) and opportunities (new sounds, scalable creativity).
Looking forward
Forecasting is always a blend of data, industry knowledge, and educated judgment. As MIDiA notes, there are no facts about the future only the best estimates informed by deep expertise. Their 83-page report, accompanied by a 50+ sheet Excel file, offers detailed data and insights that go far beyond headline numbers.
For music professionals, investors, and artists alike, the coming years will require strategic flexibility. The industry’s fundamental story is still one of growth, but the drivers of that growth are evolving. Success in the next decade will likely depend on recognizing and adapting to these new dynamics whether that means investing in new markets, navigating AI’s disruptive potential, or rethinking partnerships with DSPs.
In the words of the report’s authors, the music industry has entered an era of recalibration. And while change brings uncertainty, it also offers fresh opportunities for those ready to see beyond the familiar and engage with the global, digital, and AI-driven future of music.
